Outgoing head of the IDF Military Intelligence research division Brig. Gen. Itai Brun gave a grim forecast for Israel and its relationship with its Middle Eastern neighbors.
“We are expecting the mess in the Middle East to continue in 2015,” Brun told Israel Hayom.
One of the major elements that currently makes up the Middle East crisis is ongoing civil war in Syria. Despite threats from Western powers, Brun revealed that Syria is still using chemical weapons. These weapons pose a grave threat to the IDF and the citizens of Israel as well.
“In the end, Bashar [Assad] has in fact been using chemical weapons on his people throughout all of last year. It’s not Sarin or VX, but other agents. He uses them on his own population, and to us it seems very natural that terrorist organizations will get their hands on these kinds of weapons, or that they will be transferred to Hezbollah. It may not pose a strategic threat to the [Israeli] home front, but it is certainly a threat to the [Israeli military],” he said.
Brun expressed his belief that Hezbollah, in neighboring Lebanon, is preparing for renewed conflict with Israel. He believes that they are planning to fire more than 1,000 rockets per day at the Jewish state in any future conflict.
“Unlike in the Second Lebanon War, I believe that next time we will see Hezbollah forces on Israeli soil,” Brun warned. “They will come in two forms: One will be terror attacks – pinpoint strikes in Nahariya or Shlomi or Maalot – and the other will be more substantial operations to grab territory inside Israel, meaning that a Hezbollah unit would attempt to take over an entire community.”
In the Second Lebanon War, virtually all of the 4,000 rockets fired by Hezbollah into Israel were of short range and mainly endangered border areas in northern Israel. Brun said in any future conflict Hezbollah would be able to utilize thousands of rockets capable of reaching virtually anywhere in Israel.
Regarding the Palestinians, Brun believes that while Hamas is attempting to recreate the terror tunnel network that was destroyed in Operation Protective Edge, they are not interested in renewing fighting with Israel at this time and are therefore making every effort to rein in rocket fire from Gaza into Israel.
Brun stressed that the Military Intelligence research division has not identified any efforts by the Palestinians, or anyone else, to intervene in the upcoming Israeli elections.
In regards to the spread of radical Islamic group Islamic State (ISIS), Brun downplayed their strength while praising their PR initiatives. He described the terror group as “an amazing brand. With four yards of orange fabric and a few knives, they managed to enter everyone’s minds.”
Brun surmised that it would be impossible to defeat ISIS with air power alone, as the US. hopes to do. He warned that the ISIS inspired wave of terrorist attacks that began in Paris this month would continue.
“There are thousands of operatives who come from Western countries. They return home after having been trained, equipped and having gained experience, but above all motivated,” he explained. “The terrorist attacks against the West, including against Israeli and Jewish targets, will undoubtedly continue. This is a permanent phenomenon that needs to be confronted.”
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